Yesterday I equivocated slightly in defending Paul Krugman from Bjørn Lomborg’s accusation that Krugman was exaggerating the effects of climate change in the U.S. I shouldn’t have. Krugman was right.
New modeling by Aiguo Dai, published in Nature: Climate Change, confirms that the U.S. is likely to suffer increased drought in the coming decades:
[I]ncreasing drought may be likely over most of the Americas, southern Europe, southern and central Africa, Australia and southeast Asia as the GHG-induced warming continues in the twenty-first century…. [Patterns in the data] suggest severe drought conditions by the late half of this century over many densely populated areas such as Europe, the eastern USA, southeast Asia and Brazil. This dire prediction could have devastating impacts on a large number of the population if the model’s regional predictions turn out to be true.